Planning a hiring freeze? Don't build the plan on today's cheap AI prices

By Jason Sibley

If you're holding off on a hire because AI is covering the work, I won't tell you that's wrong. Plenty of owners will be doing the same sum this winter. My concern is the assumption behind it: the AI bill will stay roughly where it is. One accountancy firm thinks it won't.

This is opinion and general planning, not financial or employment advice. Your accountant is the right person for the numbers. For anything involving redundancies or contracts, speak to Acas or a solicitor.

What owners told S&W

S&W Group, an accountancy and wealth firm, published The BOSS Report 2026. It's S&W's own research, so treat it as one firm's survey rather than an official count of the country. Its findings on hiring and AI include:

• A third (33%) of business owners expect hiring freezes in their business in the next 12 months.
• More than one in five (22%) say the same about redundancies.
• 59% agree, strongly or somewhat, that AI has enabled their business to reduce headcount or hiring.
• 77% say they're confident they know how AI is being used in the business, but only 31% strongly agree. Another 46% only somewhat agree.
• Only 30% strongly agree they have appropriate controls to manage AI risks. Another 45% somewhat agree.

A freeze isn't only about AI. S&W also reports owners pointing to business rate rises (28%) and global political uncertainty (26%) as challenges. Plenty of freezes will reflect cash concerns and caution, with AI as one factor among several.

The last two figures interest me most. Most owners feel they know what AI is doing in their business, but far fewer feel sure. That uncertainty matters when you're relying on the tools to cover a role.

S&W's warning on AI prices

S&W says in the report:

"there's good evidence that pricing for foundation models such as Claude, ChatGPT, Copilot and Gemini is artificially low. Businesses risk shedding jobs and restructuring operations on the basis of a subsidy that won't last."

That's S&W's view. They describe the pricing as "artificially low" and the support behind it as "a subsidy that won't last". I haven't seen the evidence they have in mind, and I can't tell you prices will rise. The quote gives no date or amount.

I'd still take it seriously because the consequences of being wrong are uneven. If prices stay put, the steps below cost you an afternoon. If they climb, you'll have found the weak spot before it shows up in your bank balance.

Plan for the price going up

You don't need to be a spreadsheet wizard. You do need an honest account of what the tools cost and what they've replaced.

Give every AI tool its own line

List each tool separately on your cost sheet: subscriptions, extra seats, add-ons and anything on a company card that nobody remembers signing up to. If you can't list them, you can't cost your plan. My guide to keeping an AI tools register explains how to do it, and AI review hours and surprise bills covers the costs that don't show on the invoice.

Ask what happens if it doubled

Pick a tool and work out what happens if the monthly cost doubles. Use this to test the plan, not as a forecast. Look at the work it replaced and whether the plan still makes sense. If it only works at today's price, it's fragile. Better to know before you've committed.

Prefer monthly to annual where you can

A monthly plan lets you walk away or switch if the price jumps or the tool changes. An annual plan may fix your price for a year, which has its own value, so read each tool's terms. I'd keep commitments short until you've proved you can't live without the tool.

Know who checks the work

Every AI-produced piece of work should have a named person who checks it before it goes out. Only 30% of owners in S&W's survey strongly agree they have appropriate controls to manage AI risks. Leaving checks to "whoever notices" isn't a control. Checking takes time, and that time belongs in your sums. For the wider question of whether AI can stand in for people at all, see will AI replace staff in a small business.

Keep the skills in the building

If a freeze means fewer people, the knowledge in those people's heads matters more. Two habits are worth the effort.

First, write down how the job gets done, in plain steps, and keep it somewhere the whole team can find. When the AI tool gets more expensive, changes or gets something wrong, the process still exists outside it.

Second, make sure at least one person can do the task by hand. It doesn't have to be quick or enjoyable, only possible. If a tool vanished on Monday, you'd still be able to send the quote, chase the invoice or answer the customer.

If you're unsure where your team's time is going, start with my pieces on the AI admin pile, not payroll and doing more with the team you have. To judge whether a tool is earning its place, try how to measure AI return on investment in a small business.

A ten-minute test

Collect what you pay for AI tools from your bank statements and card statements, then paste it into an AI assistant with the prompt below. Check the response against your records.

I run a small business in the UK. Below I'm going to paste a list of the AI tools we pay for, with what each one costs us. Please do not invent any prices, tool names or facts. If something is missing or unclear, write "OWNER TO FILL IN" and carry on.

For each tool, please give me:
1. The name and what we pay (only what I've pasted).
2. The tasks it has replaced or sped up, as far as I've told you. Mark any gaps for me to fill in.
3. What would happen to our work if the price went up. Please show one scenario where the cost doubles, and make clear it is a what-if and not a prediction.
4. What would happen if the tool disappeared or changed overnight, and who in the business could do the task by hand.
5. Whether we are on a monthly or annual commitment. If I haven't said, mark it for me to check.

Finish with a short list of the three tools I should look at first, and a list of the questions I still need to answer myself. Use plain British English, and keep it short.

Here is my list:
[PASTE YOUR TOOLS AND COSTS HERE]

If many answers say "OWNER TO FILL IN", that's useful too.

A last word

At My AI Apprentice we run AI sessions for small businesses, and we're happy to look over your tool list with you if that would be useful. No pressure either way.